It's a staple each hurricane season that warns where a tropical storm or hurricane is headed, but did you know it often won't ...

The NHC states that the new forecast cone overall will be 3 to 5% smaller compared to last year ... the forecast cone is made up of a series of forecast circles that represent the probable ...

These circles get larger and larger and the forecast ... forecast errors in this time period. The 2023 forecast cone will be smaller in the medium-range and larger in the long-range.

Refresh your understanding of the difference between tropical weather watches and warnings along with the forecast cone of a ...

The narrowing of the cone does not mean storms have a smaller circumference ... There is a 1/3 chance the storm will track outside the circle, and it could track to the top or bottom as well.

Smaller forecast cone One of the most interesting changes ... center of a tropical system and is made by a set of imaginary circles placed along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc.). The ...

the radii that make up the cone are more than 100 statute miles smaller. The radius of the circle that made up the five-day forecast in that year was 371 miles compared to 245 miles in 2025.