No one needs to remind coach Ryan Day what’s at stake for No. 2 Ohio State, which can’t afford a letdown against Northwestern on Saturday at Wrigley Field.

Big Ten football kicks off from the shores of Lake Michigan as Northwestern welcomes No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten, No. 2 CFP) is in a good spot, though with little margin for error. That all but disappeared last month with a 32-31 loss at Oregon, which was ranked No. 3 at the time and now sits atop the AP poll.